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Two days remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the perceived difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in home Tests.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

The visitors have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a city England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the first three stops on the tour are the same, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth hosts an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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